Mysore: A noted global health expert has warned
that the West might not like the rise of Asia -- India and
China -- in the coming decades that would shift position
of power, and feared the possibility of war.
At the first-ever TED conference in India at Infosys
campus here, Hans Rosling, a professor of global health at
Sweden's Karolinska Institute, predicted that the two countries
would match the US and UK in terms of average income of the
people in the year 2048. He made the prediction citing the
''conventional graph" that he prepared tracing events from
1850, particularly in India and China.
"Western world will not continue to dominate the world
forever", he said, adding, Asia would really gain dominant
position as the leading power of the world.
TED is a small non-profit organisation devoted to
"Ideas Worth Spreading". It started as a four-day conference
in California 25 years ago.
"I am not worried not so much about inequities (in
India and China)", he said. "What I am really worried about is
war".
Will rich countries accept a completely changed world
economy and shift of power back to Asia, Rosling, who had also
developed a trend-revealing software "Gapminder", asked. Will
Asia be in a position to handle that change -- new position of
being in charge of might and governance of the world?.
Asked if India would indeed match the US and UK in
terms of income of people in 2048, Rosling said: "It's
possible; it's also probable. But it's far from certain". It
requires a government which makes right decisions, he said.
Rosling also said the fact that India's Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh is from a "small minority" (Sikh community)
is "quite impressive" for the world. The way India could make
diversity its strength is "quite stimulating" to the rest of
the world.
Talking about health parameters, he praised Kerala. "Kerala
matches the US in health", he said, adding, Washington DC is
not as healthy as Kerala. Kerala has an opportunity to "fix"
health system in the US, he said, in a lighter vein.
He also talked about the downsides in India and China.
India has 'enormous problems and enormous potential',
he observed, adding, keeping the country together is "very
challenging".
Investment in public health needs to be enhanced in
states such as Uttar Pradesh. While Shanghai is "healthier"
than the US, rural China still needs to catch up. Inequities
are "big obstacles" for the two countries. Bringing the entire
population to growth and prosperity is a challenge. India and
China needs to invest more in health, education,
infrastructure and electricity, Rosling said.
Bureau Report