Baghdad, Nov 12: The jihadists of al Qaeda in Iraq are weakened but may regain influence, especially if integration of the anti-Qaeda Sahwa forces into
Iraq's security structure is unsuccessful, analysts say.
The recently-begun process of transferring supervision of the Sahwa (Awakening) groups from the United States military to the Iraqi government is the key issue, according to Mohammed al-Masri, of the University of Jordan Centre for Strategic Studies.
"The inclusion of these Sahwa tribes in the security apparatus is the question. If they are able do to this swiftly and quickly, Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) will be even more limited. "If they don't do it, these tribes can go back to revive AQI all over again. They can reinvent themselves as AQI-like organisations," he said.
Al Qaeda supporters have been hunted down by Iraqi and US forces as well as by tribal militias and in some areas of Iraq they have been defeated or have simply fled. Elsewhere, however, they are regrouping or forming sleeper cells awaiting better days, analysts believe.
"They are no longer a menace at the political level. They have become a problem that we can manage," said Abdel Karim Khalaf, spokesman for the Interior Ministry.
The enrolment of the Sahwa tribal militias in several provinces alongside the American Army and Iraqi police has been a determining factor, in his view.
Thanks to the information provided by the Sahwas, the al Qaeda groups became easy targets, Khalaf said. "The Sahwas are everywhere, know everyone and can spot a stranger at first glance. Al Qaeda was asphyxiated. They can no longer operate," he said.
"I'm stuck; there is nothing I can do. The Sahwa walks hand and hand with the Americans and that's extremely bad for us. There is no doubt we have been weakened," an anti-US insurgent in the city of Fallujah was quoted as saying in testimony to the International Crisis Group think-tank.
"Some have left for Baquba or Mosul, where room for manoeuvre is greater, but here we are in an open prison. The surge was never the problem. The Americans are not that dangerous. They have the technology, but they don't know the topography. But we've been betrayed by our own brethren."
Experts say that al Qaeda's jihadists alienated local populations, even anti-American ones, through their use of mindless violence, their questioning of the established tribal structure, their wish to impose strict Salafist Islam and their takeover of traditional smuggling networks.
"AQI failed because they tried too early to implement their Islamic state," said Marwan Shehade, a researcher based in the Jordanian capital Amman, who is close to Islamic militants. "If you do (that), you have to bring justice, deal with everyone on a fair manner. (Instead) they killed the opposition. In Iraq, if you kill someone, the tribe will come after you."
Stephen Biddle, of US think tank the Council on Foreign Relations, said, "Fellow Sunnis whom AQI's leadership felt were not sufficiently devout or committed were targeted with extraordinary brutality -- including delivery of children's severed heads to the doorsteps of Sunni sheiks who failed to follow AQI preferences."
However, if al Qaeda is weakened it has not been killed off, specialists warn. A triple attack in Baghdad on Monday, which killed 28 people and wounded dozens, including children, bore the hallmarks of al Qaeda.
"They are not defeated: their ideology still exists," Shehade said. "They have lost many areas but they changed their strategy: from overground to underground organisation.
"Their media and propaganda activities are still strong, and they can attack young and radical people," the researcher said.
On Monday the Sahwa militias, mostly from Sunni tribes, began receiving pay cheques from a Shi’ite-led government that has long eyed them with suspicion. The Sahwas say their relations with the Iraqi Army under which they serve have improved, but they fear that over the long term the government is determined to sideline them.
Bureau Report