Updated on Sunday, November 30, 2008, 00:00 IST

Bhopal, Nov 30: With the fate of the candidates sealed in the EVMs, political analysts have started spelling out the possible outcome of the assembly polls in Madhya Pradesh.

There are different theories doing the rounds in the political and administrative circles. The first theory prevailing in the political circle is that higher turnout is always against the ruling party as it happened in the last assembly polls.

Though there was no specific anti-BJP wave in the state this time, the turnout(69.31 per cent) has surprised everyone.

A sociologist, Dr Srinath Sharma, working in the Dr Hari Singh Gaur University, Sagar has said the theory that higher turnout is always in favour of the BJP may not be true this time.

Sharma said that though higher turnout normally is not in favour of the ruling party, BJP may sail through with comfortable majority with its present strength (173 MLAs in 230 member assembly) coming down by 20-25 MLAs.

The main reason behind it is Bhartiya Janshakti Party President Uma Bharti, he said.

A poll-analyst, D S Tiwari, said that higher percentage of polling is an indication of change.

However, he also admitted that there was no specific wave against the ruling party and BJP was successful in marketing Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan as a brand in the polls.

To a question whether terror strike in Mumbai impacted the polling in the state, he said that it is possible as people are worried for their security and that may also force them to go to the polling booths.

Another poll-analyst VD Mehta said that more than expected turnout is always against the ruling party and there are very fewer examples of higher voting meaning a verdict in favour of the ruling party.

To a question on the hung assembly, he said that it is not the case with Madhya Pradesh where voters always favoured for the two-party system and in the present case the higher turnout of 69.31 is also against it.

Bureau Report