Shashank Chouhan
It’s that time of the year when it is not supposed to be elections but we are still going for it! It may not have been curtains on Karnataka’s political natak of now-you-are-CM, now-you-are-not as mid term polls (along with some help from delimitation panel) draw and redraw the state’s political map. Even as the political pundits, media managers and ‘black-magic practicing’ Deve Gowda delve into who will be the King of Karnataka and who will be the kingmaker, there is something that they continue to overlook and which is more likely to swing the electorate from one party to the other. Issues.
So what is it that troubles the average Kannadiga? What are the promises being made by the promising CMs down south? In the name of who or what will Karnataka vote this time? Here is a low down of poll issues:
Caste
Its Vokkaligas vs. Lingayats vs. SC/STs.
Like the rest of India, Karnataka is not untouched by caste politics. Traditional ‘rivalries’ between traditional groups and castes have made caste the traditionally winnable plank in Karnataka. Caste matters and matters of caste are taken seriously by all political parties, especially post the redrawing of constituencies.
The Lingayats and the Vokkaligas have been dominant in Karnataka since time immemorial and the tussle for power between these two communities is no secret. That BJP’s Chief Ministerial candidate is a Lingayat, is no coincidence. That was touted to be a reason when Vokkaliga supported and headed JD-S withdrew support from its own Govt. It resulted in a fresh round of Vokkaligas vs. Lingayats as Yedyurappa made it a point to gather all Lingayat monastries and leaders around him after his fall.
That caste is an issue is clear from the fact that even the Congress has had to pull in the services of SM Krishna, a powerful Vokkaliga. The party has also been able to enroll the JD-S strongman and Lingayat leader, MP Prakash to woo t he majority caste in state.
Congress is also hoping to gain from the bill pioneered by the UPA government providing 27 percent reservation for backward class students in higher educational institutions.
Mayawati’s entry into the battlefield has further sharpened the caste plank. After the redrawing of constituencies, SC and ST seats have increased to 51, with Bangalore alone having 28 such seats. The BSP has candidates for all 224 seats of the Assembly. The party said that it will replicate the UP formula of all caste support on Karnataka. Though getting even near a majority is a distant dream for it, the BSP promises to be a kingmaker, cutting into the votebanks of both Congress and JD-S.
Congress’ Mallikarjuna Kharge, a Dalit leader, will attract his community’s votes. He could also be the Congress’ Chief Minister. Even the JD-S and the BJP, seen as Vokkaliga and Lingayat bastions respectively, need to woo the others for a comfortable win.
Stability
Even as the caste cauldron promises to make the election result anything but clear, almost all the main stream parties want a stable govt- read THEIR govt- in Karnataka. The power pow-pow between JD-S and BJP has burnt the fingers and dhotis of those involved and the electorate is irked as well.
Since the time the elections were held in 2004, the people have just been helpless spectators to the political fiasco in the state.
The JD-S initially formed the government with the Congress, and then dumped it to team up with the Bharatiya Janata Party after a power sharing pact. But when it was time to hand over power to the BJP, the JD-S backtracked. After negotiations, the two parties agreed to form the government but the JD-S again withdrew support at the last minute when the BJP didn't agree to its "conditions".
It was then that stability became a major issue. The BJP has gone to the people asking for votes in the name of look-what-they-did-to-us. BJP cief Rajnath Singh has repeated in many interviews that political stability is the main issue in Karnataka and that the people will now vote for a single party government.
For the JD-S, however, stability does not seem to strike a chord with voters. It just harps- No one can come to power in Karnataka without our support.
The Congress meanwhile stayed out of the mess. Having learnt its lesson on power sharing after Dharam Singh led coalition was pulled down by JD-S and not taking support from JD-S rebel MP Prakash, it decided not to get into any poll alliance. With the popular SM Krishna in the ring and a populist manifesto, Congress hopes to achieve a majority and provide stability in the state.
It will also be right to say that if there is any party that stands to gain due to the political mess, it is Congress. SM Krishna has asked the people to not throw the state in instability by giving a hung verdict.
Inflation
Kamal Nath pointed out recently, “The fear of inflation is bigger than inflation itself.” That fear is this time threatening to drown the Congress, atleast. Prices are at an all time high and this could blunt the edge that the Congress had gained in Karnataka. Indeed, whether inflation will impact the UPA’s fortune in general elections, will be decided in Karnataka.
In terms of the dominant "have-not" factor, prices of food like cereals, vegetables and edible oils will be a critical factor and percentage drops due to price controls and duty reduction on cement and steel will be good for sentiment. But it is the food essentials which may determine the public mood.
The reasons may be global but the impact for the government will be local.
Water & Power
Much water has flown down the Cauvery and Hogenakkal, but not to those who desperately need it. The states of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu are perpetually locked in tussle over water resources and the political parties of each state milk the issue well during elections.
Even though the Cauvery Tribunal gave its final verdict, the parties involved were not satisfied. Now the Hogenakkal water falls have become a disputed site with Tamil Nadu CM Karunanidhi inaugurating a Rs 13 bn drinking water project there and Karnataka crying foul. Meanwhile, scores of farmers go sans water and electricity in both the states. The situation is no better in rural areas, too.
Kannada pride
Remember regionalism? You could say it was born down south and has not died its due death courtesy the power dreams of politicians. Even as Raj Thackeray singes Maharashtra with his Marathi Manoos First diatribe, the situation is no different in Karnataka. Its worse infact- just simmering under cover.
When the Hogenakkal waters became an issue, the entertainment industry of Karnataka joined hands with local politicians and raised their voice against Tamil ‘chauvinism.’ Reminded one of the anti-Tamil and anti-Hindi movement of 60s and 70s. Tamil films were banned, serials were blocked and there were threats of mass rioting.
And it all began with a visit of BJP CM candidate Yedyurappa to the site. His visit fanned regional politics and lead JD-S to declare in its manifesto that some reservation will be mandatory for Kannadigas in IT and other private jobs.
Farmer Welfare
Like the rest of India agriculture and agriculturists will have an impact on the poll outcome in Karnataka as well. Most of the state’s farmers being small and marginal, the poverty and suicide rate is high.
According to the state agriculture department, there are about six million small and marginal farmers in Karnataka. Unlike other states, farmers in Karnataka get loans at four percent interest from cooperative banks. The interest subsidy of two percent is borne by the state government.
The waiver announced by the Centre was a relief but was not welcomed by the powerful ‘big’ farmers.
"We definitely welcome the loan waiver. But it is not the way to tackle the crisis gripping the farm sector and leading to scores of suicides by farmers in our state as well as in other states. Loan waiver is an attempt to cure the symptom and not the disease," said Chukki, daughter of veteran farmer leader Nanjundaswamy.
Such a sentiment is sure to put the Congress on defensive.
Among the land holding farmers, nearly 75 per cent or about 57 lakh farmers have holdings of about 2 hectares or less. Given the small and, in most cases, uneconomical size of their land holdings, the farmers subsist on low income. The incidences of farmer suicides during 2004-07 were pegged at 1,605.
Any party with power dreams needs to keep the farmers on their side. From the looks of the manifesto of major parties, it is clear that the farmer is being wooed like never before.
The BJP, when in govt, had doled out loans at 4 per cent Co-operative Banks in Karnataka. That had left a number of farmers depending on commercial banks out in the dry. It has now promised free power to the farmers- which has been pooh-poohed by its opponents.
All parties are now offering loans at 3 per cent from nationalized banks. The failure of cotton crop got attention from the Congress yuvraj Rahul Gandhi who toured Karnataka to ‘understand the problems of the state.’ Whether that visit will be able to make magic in traditional rural bastions of Congress, remains to be seen.
Urban infrastructure
It was the year 2006. A gentleman was addressing a small gathering and he was warning the government about how Bangalore could cease to be India’s Silicone Valley if roads were not built, flyovers and bridges were not constructed, another airport was not made operational- as fast as the growing IT sectore. It was none other than Infosys chief Narayan Murthy.
That Bangalore has fallen into an abyss of chaos is no hidden truth. One visit to the ‘Garden City’ will convince you how India’s IT dream is about to go sour. It is despite the government, and not because of it, that Bangalore continues to attract talent and money. But this election is a different one. All political parties are gunning for the crucial middle class vote and for the first time in Karnataka, urban infrastructure is an issue.
And it seems as if people are gearing for a local body election and not that of the state Assembly when parties promise to decongest roads (min travel time in Bangalore is 2 hours), clean the sewers, build Metro Rail, regulate the construction sites mushrooming all over Bangalore et al.
It is their own mess that the politicians are now swearing to clean. While the SM Krishna led coalition had decided to go for Private-Public partnership for urban infrastructure development, his successors not only undid much of what he achieved but indeed went many steps back.
Now the BJP has come up with a slogan: "Vote BJP, Save Bangalore" to draw urban voters. The Congress has, in its manifesto, promised a Rs 50,000 crore infrastructure upgrade and a the PM has Shanghai dreams for the city.
While Deve Gowda just repeats: No one can form a govt without JD-S. One could say that Gowda is not in favour of concentrating on urban infrastructure as it was a start-up of other parties. His opposition to the country’s first private infrastructure project, the Rs 2,250 crore-Bangalore-Mysore Infrastructure Corridor (BMIC), has the MD of the company implementing he project- Ashok Kheny- vouching for a national party.
The Bangalore Airport project is another can of worms. While it has now started operation, it is not connected to the city. And the HAL airport faces closure, though stayed by court for now. Bangalore clearly needs a new lease of life if it wants to remain the technology hub of India.
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