Pakistan under Musharraf Shafey Danish So Musharraf has finally resigned. Actually, one did not expect anything less from him. I am sure that he still believes he had a ‘role to play’ in Pakistan’s future; but given the political situation has wisely decided not to press the point. Whether or not the people of Pakistan get Mushy about his nine years in power, it definitely is the end of an era. I can still remember that at the time he took power, surveys on Pakistani opinion indicated that the people had become fed up with the political drift, lethargy and bankruptcy. They said they preferred a strong dictator over a weak and vacillating democratically elected PM. The public opinion at the time was firmly behind him. Now the winds have changed. Even his resigning may not be enough. Maybe he would leave for Saudi Arabia, the place where he some nine years ago had sent his bete noire Nawaz Sharif. But if he does not, and decides to stay on, Nawaz Sharif has already stated that he would not do a ‘safe passage’ deal with him. That is to say Musharraf may be tried and convicted. Even if that does not happen, it is very much possible that he would be assassinated, what with the extremists’ anger against him. Though much of it is merited – if reports are to be believed his regime was behind the disappearance of hundreds of Pak citizens sold as bounty to the US – his time has not entirely been bad for Pakistan. Economy His rule has been a panacea to the ailing economy, which is now one of the fastest growing in Asia. Foreign reserves has grown from a mere $1 billion when he took office to $16 billion. The GDP has grown from $71.5 billion in 2002 to $108 billion in 2005. At Purchasing power parity (PPP) the economy is the 25th largest at $475.5 billion. The growth rate touched 7% in 2007. When Musharraf took office, the economy was in a sorry state. Debt had grown to 82% of the GDP in 2002 and almost 35% of the government revenues went in paying the interest on this huge debt. Economic restrictions, imposed in the wake of nuclear tests conducted in 1998 had further crippled the economy. One major step in the reform of the economy was the normalization of relations with India. As a result both India and Pakistan has been able to benefit from the growth of cross border trade. Musharraf gave the go ahead to talks on building a gas pipeline from Iran, through Pakistan to India. The project was estimated to generate $700 million per year in transit fees for Pakistan. Post 9/11 Pakistan became a frontline ally of the US. Economic sanctions were lifted, and substantial amounts aid money started flowing into the country. The need for the gas pipeline considerably diminished for Paksitan, but, typical of Musharraf’s pragmatist approach, the project was not abandoned. He continued to build economic ties with India. On August 2-3, 2007 the commerce secretaries of the two countries met to discuss further economic liberalization. They reached the significant decision of increasing bilateral trade from $1.7 billion to $10 billion by 2010. The two countries further decided to improve transport links, expand the trade basket, reduce tariffs on a larger number of products and assist each other in capacity building. Thus relations between the two countries have moved towards normalization even though officially Pakistan sticks to the stand that relations cannot be normalized without solving the Kashmir issue. The Karachi Stock Exchange has regularly featured among the best performing benchmarks in Asia. As of September 2007, it was trading above the 12,000 mark. Ties with the US In a curious twist of history, Pakistan where public opinion is stridently anti American, has been an ally of the US since its formation. Yet it also is a country which has faced the most sanctions of all US allies. The sanctions imposed after the nuclear tests it conducted in 1998 were particularly devastating. General Musharrarf’s seizing power, in contravention of democratic norms did not exactly help matters. Yet all this changed after the General agreed to give full support to the US in its war against terrorism. It has not only received substantial aid as a frontline ally of the US but also diplomatic and military support. While aid, in the three years before 9/11, was a paltry $9 million dollar, in the 3 years after it, it grew to $4.8 billion. America’s designating Pakistan as a ‘major non- NATO ally’ of the US, has made Pakistan eligible to purchase high end military hardware from the US, which was previously out of its reach. Musharraf managed to get aid where sanctions should have been expected. He also saved the county the embarrassment of handing over nuclear scientist A Q Khan to the US. All this is certainly to the General’s credit. Yet America has not been blinded by this bonhomie. It has refused to extend the same treatment to Pakistan that it has extended to India in terms of the Nuclear treaty. And it did not come in to save Musharraf when it became apparent that he would have to either resign or would be impeached. Musharraf managed to avert a confrontation with the US even though Pakistan’s fast radicalizing society would sooner or later bring it in conflict with US interests. Freedom of Speech It is a rare dictator that can allow the untrammeled exercise of the freedom of expression; and Pervez Musharraf does not fall within this category. While he did not behave like a Hitler or a Stalin – and often backed down under protests – he demonstrated time and again that he did not hesitate to muzzle the media if it went against him. The censorship he imposed upon a rebellious media was mostly in the form of financial and political pressure, but sometimes it translated into laws curtailing its freedom, or actual physical intimidation. One such instance was banning coverage of the Judicial crisis after the removal of Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry. During the protests, scores of journalists, scribes and cameramen were beaten by the police. Earlier, in January and February of 2005, the offices of the dailies Jang and Awam were attacked. The office of Geo TV in Karachi was also ransacked. On the 2nd of July the Pakistan Electronic Media Regulation Authority (PEMRA) was empowered to ban the coverage of the judicial crisis even on private channels. As a result, Geo TV, and Aaj TV, two major private channels, were unavailable in large parts of the country. This was without doubt, a political muzzling of freedom. The decree was later lifted. Musharraf’s regime also used political parties to do its work by proxy. During the campaign for the restoration of Justice Chaudhary, many journalists and reporters received death threats, some were physically assaulted and some were also killed. All this does not augur well for freedom of expression in Pakistan. But one must understand that the very fact that the people were able to come out in the streets and protest against the violations of their rights – and they did so quite visibly and vocally – was a measure of a certain amount of freedom existing in the country. Beyond the horizon History would take its time in determining whether his impact on Pakistan has been benign or pernicious; but that there has been a major impact cannot be denied. He found the Pakistani economy nearly bankrupt and under sanctions, when he took office in 1999. When he stood for his first presidential election as a civilian, the economy was among the best performing in the region. This, and the turnaround in Pakistan’s ties with the US should be counted among his most significant contributions. He also managed to bring in a major policy change in Pakistan’s ties with India. Which sadly seems as if it is heading back to the old Kashmir- is-the-most-important-issue line. Though public opinion seems irreconcilably set against him, in the long run he would be judged by the changes he brought about in the economy, politics, and Pakistan’s relations with India. We will simply have to wait and see now how history would treat his legacy.